Global Change Institute (GCI) PhD students (Mulako Kabisa, Joyce Ojino, and Sènankpon Tcheton) attended the Illusion of Control conference that took place on May 15th – 17th, 2023 at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. Illusion of control refers to the perception that individuals have control over a situation when the reality is that they do not. Twelve world-class thinkers and experts from different disciplines addressed various topics to highlight illusions of control, and provided deeper insights and approaches that can be used to effectively deal with it.
The illusion of control, worsened by siloing, makes it difficult to effect change. This is also partly due to reactions in the form of policy change and other actions being based on half understood tipping points, particularly for climate and environmental change. The illusion also worsens global systemic risk. Therefore, it is important to rethink current systems.
Across the various topics covered, there were common messages relevant to research undertaken by the participating PhD students under the Seeds of Good Anthropocenes and the Future Ecosystems for Africa projects. Points to be considered include:
- The importance of considering complexity and unintended consequences: The many variables of complex systems are difficult for policymakers to process. Solutions can also cause problems, sometimes into the unforeseeable future, and may also have policy implications.
- Change of leadership approaches: Complexity makes top-down traditional approach insufficient. New approaches such as managing down and reporting up have shown improved leadership outcomes. In addition, self-organisation in complex systems is important.
- Adopting alternative metrics: There is need for other metrics for measuring success other than the use of accounting and finance metrics.
- Rethinking institutions and policy: Bottom-up change and institutions informed by local knowledge, but which allow for global coordination are required (think systems, act local). Legislation and regulations should be sensitive to their specific contexts. It is also important to have policy experimentation during upheaval. Finding an alternative way that prioritises “doing no harm” as opposed to false binaries of how systems actually work will be essential to tackling systems challenges.
- Inclusion of other worldviews: The current science is path dependent and leans heavily on Western knowledge systems. There is need for different conceptualisations to address the current challenges.
- Novelty and change should be explored. Solutions will not be found by applying the thinking that caused current challenges. The focus should be on emergence of novelty other than its origin.
- Challenging Narratives: Narratives grounded in cognitive categories are essential in decision making to address the current challenges. The tendency to oversimplify things has reduced the adaptability of our worldviews. Hence, there is need for alternative narratives to be developed. There is need for narratives on top of quantification and this requires the inclusion of qualitative (social sciences).
- Futures thinking: Drivers of change should be understood and there is need to focus on the future and use it to construct the present. Exploring multiple futures and embedding them in systems thinking will contribute to confronting reductionist narratives. Also, ways of evaluating these multiple against each other are required. To be noted is the absence of trust in imagined futures that can destroy confidence and change positive futures into negative ones.
- The role of Artificial Intelligence (AI): AI is a tool that can be used to navigate the complexity of systems. However, there are several issues of concern. For example, how the use of AI results in the externalisation of human agency and the potential implications of that. In addition, a lot is still not yet known about its full capability thus creating challenges for governance of AI technology. The question remains on what role science will play in limiting the illusions of control that may emerge because of the use of AI.
Video recordings and slides of the conference will be uploaded on the Para Limes website.
Report compiled by Joyce Ojino
